CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z MON 29/11 - 06Z TUE 30/11 2004
ISSUED: 29/11 02:55Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across southeastern France, the southern Alps, northern Italy and parts of the Western Meditterranean Sea and across parts of Greece, Turkey and the Aegean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06Z... at mid-levels a low pressure system over France is expected to move southeastward and be located over northern Italy Thursday morning. A ridge moves eastward from the British Isles to southern Scandinavia. A weak shortwave trough over the western Aegean Sea stretching southsouthwestward over the Mediterranean Sea is forecast to move eastward.

DISCUSSION

...France, Italy, western Mediterranean...
Near neutral profiles are expected over much of the area limiting the severe potential of any storms. Rather weak low-level shear inhibits the development of tornadoes, that don't always require a lot of instability. Therefore, the overall potential for severe convective weather should be low.

...Greece, Turkey...
Low instability and low to moderate shear suggest that the storms will not be severe.

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